THE SPENDING WAVE AND WHERE IT LEADS

Another insightful view of our economy from Randy Johnson of Dent Research.

“Typically when we talk about demographics we’re referring to individuals as spenders.  The Spending Wave tracks the number of people in the population at their peak spending age.

“Starting at age 18, we follow people through their lives as consumers, tracking their movements through higher education, first jobs, apartments, early marriage, trade-up homes, empty-nesters spending on travel and cars, and, finally, retirement.

“Aggregate household spending climbs as we earn more money, peaks at age 47 just as our kids are leaving home, and then slopes slightly down.  Knowing this, we can track the number of 47-year-olds in the economy to get a sense of economic growth, which is the Spending Wave.

“It’s easy to see why we spend money in the early years.  We start earning a living so we have a bit more to spend and, once we have kids, living gets a lot more expensive.  But there’s something else to remember.  In our early years we augment our earnings with debt.

“Typically we finance our cars, homes, and even daily living with two auto loans, mortgages, and credit cards.  Debt allows consumers to increase their spending well beyond their paychecks.  When the kids are gone we tend to pare the use of debt, using our empty-nester years to get out of hock and save for retirement.

“We forecast Baby Boomer spending to peak around 2008 just as the highest number of Boomers, born in 1961, reached age 47.  This came after a flurry of home buying, car buying, and credit card use in the early 2000s.

“We all know how that ended.  After the financial crisis, spending dropped, the economy reset, and unemployment shot higher.

“We’ve been recovering for the last decade as we deal with Boomers holding down spending and the Millennials joining the economy, creating something of a consumption tug-o-war.  Boomers still earn the bulk of income, but they’re at the point of saving for the next phase of life.

“Millennials want their share of the economic pie as they join the labor force, but can’t earn enough to buy homes at the same pace as previous generations.  We’re not done with this part of the economic cycle, but it’s getting closer.

“In the worst part of the financial crisis, businesses laid off employees.  As workers found new jobs, they struggled to replace their old income.  Paying workers less allowed companies to be more competitive and eventually ramp up profits, but it came at a cost: unhappy workers.

“The huge generation that joined the labor force in the Disco era is now leaving and there aren’t enough new workers to take their place.  With the economy on stable footing for years and Boomers retiring, unemployment has fallen near record lows.

“Today, the U.S. economy has more job openings than people looking for work.  Companies claim they can’t find enough qualified employees.

“Still, Corporate America has been unwilling to pay higher wages, or has done so only grudgingly.  With unemployment so low, employees are becoming restive, and now workers find themselves in a position of power.

“Companies will have to spend more to attract and retain talent in the months and years ahead.  The problem isn’t about engineers or bankers.  It’s about plumbers, electricians, and forklift drivers.  We’re simply running out of blue-collar, non-college graduate workers, the very people that fuel our national economy.

“The trucking industry exemplifies the issue.

“Truckers are part of the delivery chain for almost everything we purchase.  Whether it is packages left at our doors after we order from Amazon or food at the grocery store, 70% of freight is hauled by truckers.

“Gasoline is delivered to service stations by truckers.  Even our water supply, which is typically pumped from reservoirs, relies on truckers to deliver the chemicals used to make it safe for drinking.

“To call truckers vital to our national economy is an understatement.  And we don’t have enough of them.

“According to the American Trucking Association (ATA), we need another 60,000 truckers right now, and the need is going to grow in the years ahead.

“Part of the problem is economic growth.  As America rebounds, we’re demanding more goods.  We’re also dramatically increasing online shopping, which drives package delivery.

“While the last mile of delivery is not handled by trucking companies, shipping firms move packages among distribution centers via trucks which requires truck drivers.

“Today, 52% of truck drivers are 45 years old or older.  Many will retire in the years ahead.  The ATA estimates that the U.S. economy will be short more than 100,000 truckers by 2026, which is just after the peak number of Baby Boomers retire in 2024.  With so many openings, you might think that trucking companies are ramping up wages to attract more drivers.  They are, but not fast enough to attract the drivers they need.

“And they have a long way to go to catch up to the median pay scale.  Since 2014, truck drivers’ median wage has grown faster than the median wage for all occupations, but truckers still make 13% less than the median annual wage.

“The American Transportation Research Institute estimates that truck driver wages and benefits make up 43% of the cost of shipping via truck.  As those costs go up, so will the cost of delivery, which will drive up the cost of the goods we purchase.  Say hello to inflation.

The Internet Deflator

“Pushing the other way, the internet has served to keep prices low.  The internet is integral to our everyday lives.  We use it to work, study, communicate, research, share, shop, and sometimes, just goof off.

“While we waste a lot of time with cat videos and other questionable pursuits, there’s no doubt that the internet has disrupted many areas of our lives by allowing the almost instantaneous sharing of information.

“Documents travel via email, we buy products from across the country and around the world, we collaborate on work projects and research pieces without needing to travel.  The cost of transmitting is close to zero.

“Just as the Boomers were cutting back their spending, the internet gave us more ways to comparison shop and save money.  It was a match made in economic heaven.  Combined with lower spending by the largest generation, online shopping helped to hold inflation well below the Fed’s target rate, even as the central bank printed trillions of dollars.

“The move to interconnectivity via the web isn’t over, of course.  We are just at the beginning of the internet of things (IoT), where many devices are connected to the internet and can be constantly monitored.  But buying online is now mainstream, with shoppers of all ages checking prices on the internet before they head to the local store, if they get in the car at all.

“Amazon might drive prices a bit lower as it enters new sectors like groceries and healthcare, but competitors in those fields were already fighting a pricing battle against information.

“It’s unlikely that online shopping drives prices lower in the years ahead.  That deflationary ship has sailed.”

The “spending wave” is often now more a ripple then a wave.

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MARSHMALLOWS MAY PREDICT YOUR FUTURE

Here’s a psychological challenge for anyone over 30 who thinks “kids these days” can’t delay their personal gratification.  Before you judge, wait a minute.

It turns out that a generation of Americans now working their way through middle school, high school and college are quite able to resist the prospect of an immediate reward in order to get a bigger one later.  Not only that, they can wait a minute longer than their parents’ generation, and two minutes longer than their grandparents’ generation could.

It may not sound like much, but being able to hold out for an extra minute or two at a young age may serve them well in the long run.  Research suggests that superior results on a delayed-gratification task during the toddle years is associated with better performance in school and in jobs, healthier relationships, and have even fewer chronic diseases.

Those findings emerge from a new effort to understand how children’s ability to hold out for the promise of more has changed over time.  The study, published in the journal of Developmental Psychology, resurrected an experiment that’s become a developmental psychology classic, the so-called “marshmallow test.”

Pioneered in the 1960s by a young Stanford psychology professor, the marshmallow test left a child between the ages of 3 and 5 alone in a room with two identical plates, each containing different quantities of marshmallows, pretzels, cookies or another delicious treat.  Before leaving the room “to do some work,” the adult researcher instructed the child that the single treat on one plate could be eaten at any time.  But if the child could wait for him to return before eating it, the researcher added, she could have the second, bigger treat instead.

After the experimenter closed the door on the subject, researchers on the other side of a two-way mirror monitored the child’s bout with temptation and recorded how long he or she could hold out before licking or eating the treat.

Replicated many times and followed up by a wide range of researchers, the marshmallow test has earned recognition as a powerful predictor of future performance—at least among the white children of well-educated parents.  Compared with kids who lunged for the early reward, those who held out for a bigger prize did better in school, got higher SAT scores, had higher self-esteem and better emotional coping skills, and were less likely to abuse drugs.

Other studies found that children unable to defer gratification were more likely to be the opposite.

By the time U of Minnesota psychologist Stephanie Carlson and colleagues at the U of Washington ran the exact same experiment with 540 kinds from 2002 to 2012, the changes appeared to be real close to 60% of the children tested held out the full 10 minutes for a bigger reward.  And only about 12% claimed their reward in the first half-minute.

These kids—like the two earlier cohorts, overwhelmingly white from families with relatively high incomes and educational attainment—are now 11 to 21.

On average, they waited two minutes longer (during a 10-minute period) than those from the 1960s before seizing their reward.  And they waited one minute longer than those tested in the 1980s.

Surprised?  You’re not alone.

In a survey conducted before performing the new analysis, the study authors found that adults in the U.S. “generally intuit” that children today are less tolerant of delayed gratification and less self-controlled than children were 50 years ago.

Roughly three-quarters of a representative sample of U.S. adults did not believe that children these days would show such self-restraint for a better reward.  And parents—Latino parents especially—were overwhelmingly convinced their own kids would not delay gratification as long as they would have when they were 4 years old.

Carlson wasn’t so sure.  On the one hand, she wondered how kids’ self-control would hold up under the influence of daily television and amid a dramatic rise in attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder diagnoses.\

On the other hand, she knew that research has chronicled a steady rise in kids’ IQ scores—the so-called Flynn effect—which correlates with executive function.  And she knew that a growing portion of kids’ screen time, including video games and some social media, can help them learn to manipulate language and other abstractions to accumulate social approval and other rewards.

Higher preschool enrollment and changes in parenting styles, including the rise of the empowered child, also might contribute to generational improvement in kids’ ability to delay gratification, Carlson said.  After all, only 15.7% of all 3- and 4-year-olds in the United States attended preschool in 1968.  By the year 2000, more than half of kids that age attended schools that stressed social skills and self-control as cornerstones of educational readiness.

The findings “do make me hopeful,” she said.  Not only have qualities such as perseverance and self-control not disappeared, a simple and unchanged measure of those qualities—the marshmallow test—has withstood many trials, including the test of time.

“Delay of gratification is still a good bellwether of these self-regulation and executive function skills, and we’re learning more every day about how important they are for school readiness an achievement.”

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TRAVELS AT THE TOP OF THE LIST

In our over 80 some odd trips, it was hard to pick out the ones to call “The Best.”  Interesting in all these trips there were only two we could say were the least enjoyable.

Back to picking out the best.  In early 2015 we had a blog in January and one in February attempting to name those best.

In no particular order, here were our nominations for best trips:

China, right after 9/11, small group.  Fascinating combination of ancient history busting with energy and modernization.

Canadian Rockies with Tauck.  Beautiful Banff, Jasper, and unforgettable Lake Louise.

Peru, on a private tour to Lima, Cusco, the Sacred Valley, Machu Picchu, and the highlight was an unbelievable Lake Titicaca, the world’s highest lake and South America’s largest.

Loire Valley, France, on a Backroads bike trip.  Outstanding close up of life in a beautiful countryside.

West Africa cruise and six-day inland trip in Mali, including Timbuktu and a number of awesome sights.  What an amazing bygone world!

Southern Africa, including Joburg, Kruger National Park safari, Victoria Falls, Botswana with three different safaris, Namibia with three more safaris, and the fabulous city of Capetown.

The next set included:

Southeast Asia – interesting traveling to Laos, Ankor Wat and the highlight was Burma, including Inle Lake with a guide named Wa Wa.  All wonderful!

Chile/Argentina – both countries most enjoyable with an outstanding all-day trip with three buses and two boats from Chile to Bariloche, Argentina.  We’ll get to Iguazu Falls later.

Barge trip outside of Dijon, France – seven days of interesting cruising where you could walk faster than the barge—or ride one of their bikes, or take a morning town or church visit, and three outstanding meals every day.

Rafting the Grand Canyon – eight days of nature and adventure with lots of rapids and small hikes to tour turquoise waterfalls.  Amazing!

Spain – fabulous eight-day peek into the Muslim, Jewish and Christian history of Seville, Cordoba, Alhambra, Grenada, Madrid and then wonderful Barcelona and  Bilbao.

Washington, D.C. – what a great treat to spend time in our nation’s capital and get to see a bit of Congress, the White House, but really special was the Library of Congress, the Supreme Court, the Smithsonian museums, the Portrait Gallery, Spy Museum, and the National Cathedral.  A terrific place to visit!  You leave with a great sense of pride.

I’ve mentioned some of the great cities sometimes when describing them as part of a trip, but there are a dozen other very special cities to call attention to:

  • New York
  • Vienna
  • Berlin
  • Dubrovnik
  • Paris
  • Shanghai
  • Vancouver
  • New Orleans
  • London
  • Quebec
  • Sydney
  • Singapore
  • Amsterdam
  • Beijing

I’m sure you have your own nominations.  Next month we’ll take a look at the next to the best trips.

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ON GOD AND POLITICS

The following is an article written by Robert Levy, an attorney and former chairman of the Cato Institute.

“Last year, I was on a panel discussing a provocative play by Suzanne Bradbeer, The God Game.  The play’s protagonist is Tom, an agnostic-leaning-atheist vice-presidential wannabe who is offered a shot on the ticket if he will falsely affirm his belief in God.  Like most political candidates, Tom is convinced he can do great things for the country—but first he must lie about one of his deep-rooted convictions.  That quandary raises several public-policy questions that might interest” blog “readers.

“First:  Today’s voters seem to accept religious differences.  We’ve had a Catholic president, a Mormon presidential candidate, and a Jewish vice-presidential candidate.   Doesn’t that belie the underlying premise of The God Game—that is, voters will reject a candidate who doesn’t profess a religious belief?  According to a 2012 Gallup poll, the premise is still correct, despite evidence of increasing religious tolerance.  When voters were asked if they would support a well-qualified presidential candidate who was an atheist, 46 percent said ‘No.’”  Comparable percentages of voters who have a problem supporting a qualified presidential candidate who is:  African Americans 4%, Jewish 9%, Gay 31% and Muslin 42%.  “Apparently, voters care less about race, sexual orientation, and minority religious views (Catholic, Jewish, Mormon) than they do about belief in God.  The exception—most likely for geopolitical reasons—is concern about the Muslim faith.  Even that aversion is less than voter antipathy toward atheists.

“Second:  Politicians often dissemble to justify their ends.  Obama said we could keep our health plan; Bush II equivocated about Iraq; Clinton lied about Lewinsky, Nixon about Watergate, and Johnson about Vietnam.  Why should voters be even more hostile when a candidate prevaricates about religion?  My best guess:  Religion is a core value.  Lying about such a value is more serious and reflects more on the candidate’s character than, say, lying about whether health insurance will be canceled.  If the only way to get elected is to falsely claim theism, and if voters discover the deception, the end will not justify the means.

“Third:  Shouldn’t religion be a private matter—that is, none of the public’s business?  Ordinarily yes, but once a person becomes a candidate for national elective office, his private affairs become public.  Voters demand full disclosure about religious beliefs that might have an impact on political decisions.  Suppose, for example, a religion disavowed all medical care or endorsed pacifism, jihadism, racism, sexism, or homophobia.  Surely, voters should know if a candidate embraces that religion and those beliefs.

“Fourth:  Are there constitutional issues related to the precondition in The God Game that Tom must profess religious beliefs?  After all, Article VI states that ‘no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to an Office or public Trust under the United States.’  That question reflects a common misconception about the nature and purpose of our Constitution.  It has two primary objectives:  to secure individual rights and to limit the power of government.  The Constitution does not constrain candidates or political parties or voters; it’s a code of conduct for the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of government.  Importantly, in The God Game, there are no actions by government that would affect Tom’s decision to run or not.  It’s up to him—shaped of course by his assessment of whether he can win and his willingness to compromise his principles.

“Fifth:  The Declaration speaks of unalienable rights endowed by our creator.  How can that be reconciled with the Constitution’s prohibition on the establishment of religion?  There’s no conflict.  Several of the Framers were deists—meaning they believed in God as creator, not a God who interacts with mankind on an ongoing basis.  For constitutional purposes, however, that belief is irrelevant.  Our constitutional framework does not hinge on the question of whether rights come from God, nature, or some other source.  The key point is, they do not come from the king.  Individuals have rights, independent of and prior to government.  Rights come first; then we secure those rights to delegating limited and enumerated powers to a government bound by a written Constitution.  That document does not separate God from our lives; but it does separate God from government.

“Historically, our political leaders have been theists—not surprisingly, because the overall population is overwhelmingly theist.  But even when those leaders have actually been religious figures, such as Rev. Martin Luther King, the public-policy ends they sought and the justifications they advanced were secular, not religious.  King did not insist that everyone should be a Christian because Christians believe in racial equality.  He insisted that everyone—Christians and non-Christians alike—should believe in racial equality on moral and constitutional grounds.”

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THE EVOLUTION OF CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY

The fundamental and primary purpose, as well as obligation, of any business is to provide a service or products to satisfy customers that will provide employees compensation and job retention commensurate with their skills, as well as remuneration to their investors.  To do all this, the company must make a profit.

That in and of itself is the fulfillment of their responsibility to the community at large.  A company that cannot meet these standards and goes out of business is abrogating its principal social responsibility to its customers, its employees, its investors and the community.

If it can, in addition to its mission as we have outlined it, provide some measure of social responsibility to the community, so much the better.

To whatever extent time and profits allow and are available good business practice recommends contributions to the communities’ needs.  Companies have for many years donated resources and money to this endeavor.

Way back in the 30’s this was called community service.  The Little League baseball parks in all the small towns had its outfield walls covered with ads from local businesses—the gasoline station, cleaners, grocer and drug store.  This paid for the players’ jerseys and the equipment.

By the time we got to the 60’s, this endeavor was called “Public Relations” and went way beyond Little League.  Now there were sponsorships of community-wide events and civic affairs on a large scale, and then became “Community Relations.”

This all grew into the naming of sports venues, big money sponsorship of spelling bees, debate competition, golf tournaments, and all manner of community activities.  Companies do this to help the communities and present a good image.

As we got past the turn of the century, with growing concerns for the environment, all this community outreach expanded into “Corporate Social Responsibility” (CSR).  How do you define CSR?

CSR programs allow companies to plan the elimination of their waste and have as little impact on the environment as possible.  A positive impact on society may be accomplished through educational and social programs.  The social programs can include charities and using locally-grown products.

The term CSR originated in the 1960s as a term used to explain legal and moral responsibilities of a corporation.

This new paradigm was brought home to me in hearing about Gabriele’s grandson’s immersion in CSR as a business school graduate at the University of Colorado.

Here is a partial description of Nathan’s outline of the CSR educational goals:

“The Six Prime Principles of CSR provide us with a roadmap for how best to integrate the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) into management education through the implementation of transformative, issue-centered learning and extensive reflective practice and fieldwork.  Transformative learning involves profoundly understanding oneself in relation to colleagues, communities, ecosystems and their interdependencies.  In the implementation of PRME Principles 2 and 3, individuals undergo a process of introspection, exploring and revising their beliefs, values, behavior, and their unconscious bias.  In issue-centered learning, students apply their values to global issues through a methodological framework that entails a holistic and inclusive perspective of society, the environment and economics.  Issue-centered learning is fundamentally multidisciplinary, adopting a systems approach to problem-solving, which enables future globally responsible leaders to practice complex decision-making processes while maintaining consideration for all aspects of the triple bottom line.  Lastly, reflective practice and fieldwork include a non-textbook approach to education, where students receive invaluable experiential learning.  Internships and project work can substitute for the textbook and give students a hands-on experience of business concepts through practical ventures.  This empirical form of learning coincides with the last three PRME principles of research, partnership, and dialogue.  Future globally responsible leaders develop invaluable connections, tools, and experience to successfully better the world by helping to achieve the SDGs with business knowledge as their weapon.

“The implementation of this roadmap empowers students to become set to deliver immeasurable impact as sustainable entrepreneurs, responsible leaders, and enlightened statesmen capable of reflective awareness.  As sustainable entrepreneurs, they will maintain a visionary and long-term perspective, ensuring that SDGs such as responsible consumption and production and climate action are valued.  As responsible leaders, they will focus on inclusion and promote gender equality and reduce inequalities.”

Heavy stuff…and now he’s successfully practicing this course of action with a firm in San Diego.

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THE MAKING OF A RELATIONSHIP

A friend asked, “How do two strong-willed people—control freaks to boot—manage a successful relationship”?  I chuckled and replied, “That’s a good question.”

I’ve already described in a blog (7/15/15) how we each took responsibility for various elements of our living together.  This question seemed to require a more meaningful answer.

In business, we had each been the number one, the boss, and so we came together with very decided views on a number of things.

Perhaps the best illustration of our success occurred when we agreed to live together some 20 plus years ago.  We were thinking of maintaining our separate domiciles—Gabriele in Santa Monica, me in the Marina—and buying a condo somewhere in Orange County for weekends.  We were both still working so maybe a weekend place somewhere like San Juan Capistrano would be a workable plan.

On a flyer one Saturday afternoon, we went to take a look at a condo in a gated community here in the Marina.  The complex was nicely landscaped, had an attractive pool area and tennis courts.  The unit was on the top floor with two bedrooms and a loft.  It was quite spacious with 2,250 square feet and had lots of windows and light.

The one drawback was how the owner, the V.P. of Saudi American Airlines, had decorated the place.  The living room had pink and aluminum wallpaper floor to 20-foot ceiling with dull dark grey carpet.  The rest of the place was similarly decorated.

The next morning I casually asked Gabriele, “So you want to make an offer on that unit”?  She looked at me a little wild eyed and said, “You’re crazy, it’s horrible.”  I replied that I knew that.  We’d have to gut it down to the barest beginnings and start over.

Gabriele said one other, for her, major problem.  The unit’s kitchen had a right-handed layout and she’s left handed.  I said I didn’t know rooms were left or right handed.  She explained that the dishwasher was on the right side of the sink and she would have trouble reaching down to put the dishes in.  So we really gutted the whole place.

We made an offer, bought the unit, and started dealing with Frank, the contractor from hell.  We had a lot of help from Bonnie Sachs, who had helped me design my previous condo, as well as my office.

Long story, but here’s what I wanted to get to.  Gabriele and I agreed easily on wall colors, furniture, carpet, drapes, and everything Bonnie recommended.

We had one problem.  We didn’t agree on what to put on the walls.  We had very different tastes in that area.  My inclinations were to bold Native American and very modernistic expressions.  Gabriele had an accumulation of very conservative contemporary art.

Having accumulated our own stuff, we worked out an arrangement where we assigned walls to house our individual stuff.  It worked out pretty smoothly.  Over time we also began to acquire art and artifacts in our travels to South Africa, Mendocino, Thailand, Vietnam, Santa Fe and Sedona that we both agreed upon.

We easily agreed that I would do the travel planning and Gabriele would keep the community checkbook and the kitchen.  I got the chores she didn’t want; i.e., emptying the dishwasher and taking out the garbage.

So here was the answer to the friend’s question on how two very directed, opinionated people could make a relationship work.  Find an area of disagreement, like art, and assign walls.

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CURRENT EVENTS – AUGUST, 2018

Support for tariffs, but not trade wars

A UBS poll of 300 business owners shows that 88 percent believe that China engages in unfair trade practices, and 71 percent approve of additional tariffs being imposed on that nation.  But 49 percent think that a full-blown trade war with China will hurt America’s economy.

Another UBS poll of 501 high net worth investors shows that 92 percent think that China engages in unfair trade practices and that 59 percent approve of further tariffs, but 74 percent think a trade war would hurt the U.S. economy.

One way to parse those results:  Business owners and investors think that President Trump’s policies are justified, but require delicacy.

More trade:  Mr. Trump’s truce with Europe means he can double down on China, but Beijing says that pressure won’t work.  And Sono’s I.P.O. reveals a trade war is a new risk to going public.

Enough is enough, Mr. Mueller

The intense ongoing confrontation between Special Counsel Robert Mueller and President Trump is harming the entire country.  People are taking sides and are despising each other, the stock market is wary, and foreign governments are sensing potential weakness.

Mr. Mueller must understand that unless there is demonstrable evidence of serious coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian government agents during the 2016 election, the case is not worth pursuing.  Going after “obstruction” or other after-the-fact allegations is garbage.  Nitpicking or contriving criminal activity at this level does the nation grievous harm.

On the other side, it is only fair to let Mr. Mueller state his case.  To shut down this investigation would be a major mistake and would severely damage the country.  But Robert Mueller should understand that his staff is not a wrecking crew.  He has a responsibility to present strong evidence of serious wrongdoing or walk away with a detailed explanation of his investigation.

If Mr. Mueller is truly a patriot, he will wrap up his now 14-month probe before the midterm election.  If he cannot accomplish that, he should explain why.

Do the right thing.  Don’t hurt the country, Mr. Mueller.

Israel has more to worry about than Hamas

Tom Friedman of the N.Y. Times tells us that the Israeli situation is fraught with the consequences of a three-partner marriage.

Hamas has adopted an intractable, inflexible attitude of protest in the Gaza Strip and Israeli P.M. Bebe Netanyahu has taken the same approach to expanding settlements in the West Bank.

This is where that third person in the marriage comes in:  Mother Nature—i.e., demographics and ecosystem destruction.

In March, Reuters reported from Jerusalem:  “The number of Jews and Arabs between the Mediterranean Sea and Jordan River is at or near parity, figures cited by Israeli officials show, raising questions whether Israel can remain a democracy if it keeps territory where Palestinians seek a state.”

There are now about 2.7 million Palestinians in the West Bank, 2 million in Gaza, and 1.84 million Israeli Arabs, for a total of about 6.5 million.  That is roughly the same as the number of Jews living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.  If current birthrate trends continue, the Jews will likely become a minority, with all of the negative governing consequences that will entail.

And then there’s this:  Repeated Hamas rocket attacks that led to an Israeli blockade of building supplies, electricity shortages due to intra-Palestinian feuding, and Hamas’ regular use of building material to dig tunnels to penetrate Israel have led to a critical shortage of infrastructure in Gaza, particularly sewage treatment plants.  So Gazans now dump about 100 million liters of raw sewage into the Mediterranean  daily, explained Gidon Bromberg, the Israeli director of EcoPeace Middle East, which promotes peace through environmental collaboration.

Because of the prevailing current, most of that sewage flows northward to the Israeli beach town of Ashkelon, the site of Israeli’s second-biggest desalination plant.  Eighty percent of Israel’s drinking water comes from desalination, with 15 percent of the nation’s drinking water coming from the Ashkelon plant.  But now Gaza’s waste is floating into Ashkelon’s desalination plant, and the plant has had to close several times to clean Gaza’s gunk out of its filters.

“So this idea that we can just get out of Gaza, throw away the key and forget about it is a total illusion,” said Bromberg.

Moreover, the renewable extraction rate for Gaza’s underground aquifer is about 60 million cubic meters of rain water annually, noted Bromberg, but Gazans have been drawing about 200 million cubic meters a year for over a decade, “so the aquifer has gotten drained and seawater has seeped into it, and many people are now drinking water that is both salty and polluted with sewage.”

Gazans now spend 20 to 30 percent of their income trying to buy clean water, he said.

In a few years, the next protest from Gaza will not be organized by Hamas, but by mothers because typhoid and cholera will have spread through the fetid water and Gazans will all have had to stop drinking it.  “Then you could see two million coming to the border fence with Israel with empty buckets, begging for clean water,” said Bromberg.  “We’re heading in that direction.”

The plan to divide fails, now a plan to secede prepares

Tech millionaire Tom Steyer’s plan to divide California into three states got enough signatures for the ballot, but the coast said, “it doesn’t qualify.”

Now a group of Native American activists have been given the go ahead to gather signatures for a ballot measure that would have California secede from the U.S. and establish an independent nation of Native Americans in the central part of the state.

Anyone else have any ideas on what to do with California?

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